On April 10, the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia (Moscow) hosted a meeting of the Board “On the results of the implementation in 2017 of the State Program for the Development of Agriculture and the Regulation of Agricultural Products, Raw Materials and Food Markets for 2013-2020”.
The main goal of the program is to ensure the country's food independence, accelerate import substitution, and increase the competitiveness of Russian agricultural products in the domestic and foreign markets.
The final Board was attended by the Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation Alexander Tkachev, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Arkady Dvorkovich, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Agrarian and Food Policy and Environmental Management Mikhail Shchetinin, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Agrarian Issues Vladimir Kashin, Auditor of the Accounts Chamber Bato Zhargal Zhambalnimbuev, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia Alexander Morozov, Chairman of the Board of Rosselkhozbank JSC Dmitry Patrushev, President of the Association of Peasant (Farm) Enterprises and Agricultural Cooperatives Vladimir Plotnikov, General Director - Chairman of the Board of JSC Federal Corporation for the Development of Small and Medium Enterprises Alexander Braverman, heads of regions, heads of regional governing bodies of the agro-industrial complex, industry unions and associations, representatives of science and education.
The Yaroslavl region was represented at the meeting by Valery Kholodov, Deputy Chairman of the Government of the region, in charge of the agro-industrial complex, consumer market and veterinary medicine, and Sergey Sorokoumov, General Director of JSC YaroslavlAgropromtekhsnab.
The work of the Collegium was opened by the Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation Alexander Tkachev. In his report, he said that in agriculture in 2017 there was a significant increase in several indicators at once.
Last year, the growth of agricultural production amounted to 2.6%, even despite the high base of previous years. Let me remind you that over the past 5 years, the overall growth has exceeded 20%. This is a very solid result. We have every opportunity to maintain such a pace of development, taking into account the priority support for the industry by the Government of the Russian Federation. In 2017, a record grain harvest was obtained - 135.4 million tons of grain. We are seeing a two-fold increase in this indicator over 5 years. During this period, we more than doubled the production of wheat (85.9 million tons), buckwheat - two times (1.5 million tons), soybeans - two times (3.6 million tons). .), rapeseed - 1.6 times (1.5 million tons). The harvest of vegetables increased by 12% (16.4 million tons), greenhouse vegetables - by 1.6 times (922 thousand tons). Fruit harvest increased by 10% (2.94 million tons). A worthy result was also obtained in animal husbandry. Meat production for 5 years has grown by a quarter - 14.6 million tons, - said Alexander Tkachev.
The Yaroslavl region, following the results of 2017, exceeded the plan for the production and processing of open ground vegetables. The indicators amounted to 25.3 thousand tons, which is 10.3 thousand tons higher than the plan. The livestock sector is experiencing steady growth. In 2017, the indicators for the production of livestock and poultry for slaughter in farms of all categories were exceeded by 8.2%. The production of milk increased by 8.7% and the production of cheese and cheese products increased by 13.5%.
The growth of Russian agricultural production as a whole made it possible to develop the food industry, which grew by 6% in 2017. But farms remain the most dynamically developing sector of the agricultural economy.
This is our priority, - said Alexander Tkachev. - Today, farmers receive financial support in several areas: unrelated support, subsidies per liter of milk, preferential loans and grants. Over the past 4 years, support for farmers has grown by 30% - from 8 to 12 billion rubles. In 2018, we will continue to support farmers and focus on encouraging them to join agricultural cooperatives. Since the beginning of the year, the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia has already approved 4.5 thousand loans to farmers for 31 billion rubles. That is, the number of farmers who received preferential loans for 3 months of this year is 1.5 times more than for the entire last year. We have set up a mechanism for concessional lending.
In the Yaroslavl region, as part of the implementation of the preferential lending mechanism, agricultural producers received 24 preferential loans in the amount of 4314.0 million rubles in 2017, including short-term loans - 18 in the amount of 1486.23 million rubles, 6 investment loans in the amount of 2827.8 million rubles. 3 agricultural consumer cooperatives were created. In turn, the increase in the volume of agricultural products in the region, sold by agricultural consumer cooperatives that received grant support, exceeded the planned figures by 4.5 times and amounted to 45.5%.
The speakers in their speeches at the meeting of the Board also focused on the fact that in recent years the agro-industrial complex has become a driver for the development of the country's economy. Currently, agricultural producers fully ensure the food security of Russia.
The key task for 2018 was to maintain the positive dynamics of the development of the agricultural industry. An additional 30 billion rubles will be allocated from the federal budget for these purposes. And this is in addition to the existing total funding indicator for Russia of 242 billion rubles. This position was approved by the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, - explained Valery Kholodov.
Additional financing will be used for the development of rural areas, preferential short-term and investment loans, modernization of machinery and equipment. Approaches to the distribution of state support funds will also be reviewed. Most of them will be sent to the regions of Siberia and the Far East.
In conclusion, the Board voiced the need to reorient many areas of agriculture for export and increase production efficiency, which will allow the domestic agricultural industry to be competitive in the world market.
Sanctions on Russia have not been lifted, oil remains at 45% of 2014 prices, Russians are keenly aware of the crisis, saving on food, and the authorities are already declaring that since November 2016 the economic situation in the country has begun to change, and the country has entered a weak economic growth . The President reported to the people that the sanctions have only benefited us, they have become an incentive for the development of the economy. Economic development data for five months of this year showed that the Kremlin is preparing for the presidential campaign and "raising" the statistics on paper. After all, it is not with the failed sixth anniversary that the incumbent president goes to a new term.
EXIT FROM RECESSION
The latest data from Rosstat showed that the GDP has finally turned positive and the recession has been overcome. However, according to the economists of BCS and FC Uralsib, this was achieved through rising oil prices and the state defense order, while the rest of the economy is either stagnating or declining. According to HSE data, the share of sectors related to the extraction of raw materials in Russian GDP increased from 7.8% in 2013 to 8.2% in 2016. The share of defense industries and public administration rose from 5.5% to 5.8%, thus the overall weight in the economy of the raw materials and military industries reached a maximum since at least 2011.
Construction, for example, for five months in the volume of commissioned space fell by 12.6%. The huge gap between the resource-based and manufacturing economies suggests that the recovery trend is illusory and fragile, due to the economic environment - energy prices. If last year each barrel of Russian oil was sold abroad for $31.99, this year it is already $52.04. As the 2008 crisis showed, such an economic recovery is temporary and leads to protracted crises with a reduction in the time lags of the inter-crisis period.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
According to official data, the main indicators of economic growth in the country began to grow. In the five months of this year, industrial production grew by 1.7%, although the manufacturing industry only by 0.9%. If we translate these figures to the level of the pre-sanction 2013, then in terms of manufacturing industry, Russia now produces 2.5% less products than 3.5 years ago. And if in 2013 the share of imports in the Russian economy reached 90% for some product groups, then it is logical that with a decrease in manufacturing products, import dependence did not decrease, but only increased. Although Medvedev has already managed to report that "in 2016, the most promising sectors of Russian industry developed, certain results were achieved in the import substitution program."
The country has been dependent on foreign goods, and continues to depend on them, since its production has not increased. The main factors for the growth of entrepreneurial activity - affordable loans and predictable business conditions have not been working for a long time. On a direct line, for example, one of the questions was about high rates - “the actual rate in our particular case was 19 percent per annum - 18.75. With such rates, which was mentioned at the beginning, we will not build a new economy, and, unfortunately, the business does not have such profitability as we would like.” The rules for doing business have also changed many times, each time in the direction of introducing new fees and obstacles. This is the Platon system, which increased the cost of transportation, new requirements for cash registers, bucket nights, trading fees in federal cities, and so on.
The main factor in the growth of industrial indicators is the change in the calculation methodology by Rosstat, which switched from the OKVED system to OKVED-2. As the HSE Development Center noted, there was a sharp jump in industrial production in May at the level of 5.6% yoy against 0.7% growth in January-April, which led to an acceleration in GDP growth in May to 3.1% yoy (against 0.5% in the first quarter and 1.7% in April), was due to statistical problems in the indices of industrial production and wholesale trade. More precisely, the imperfection of the technique itself. But now Rosstat is directly subordinate to the Ministry of Economic Development, so in the future it will serve the department, pleasing it with statistics. The Ministry of Economic Development, shortly after the subordination of Rosstat, has already reported to itself that the pace of economic growth has almost doubled and reached a record for 5 years.
Whatever numbers of near-zero growth Rosstat draws for the Kremlin, it is obvious that a country like Russia with growth rates at the level of statistical error is simply unacceptable, since this is a direct path to a new protracted economic crisis.
INVESTMENTS
As for investments in fixed capital, which, according to data for the first quarter, grew by 2.3%, they were seen mainly by only two sectors of the economy - as usual, the extraction and transportation of raw materials, as well as the financial sector that serves the flows of the "pipe economy". More than 40% of investments in fixed capital accounted for the extraction of minerals and the construction of pipelines for their transportation abroad. In the sector of real production, the investment decline, on the contrary, continues. For example, in the manufacturing industry, the volume of capital investments fell by another 6.7%, although 25% of the capacities are completely outdated and unable to produce products. In metallurgy, capital investments fell by almost 30%, in the production of metal products - by 24.7%, in the motor vehicle sector - by 32.2%. According to the conclusions of Sberbank economists, the growth in investment was due to the "capital factor", budgetary funds and the Power of Siberia gas project, that is, in no way speaks of a recovery in the activity of the private sector.
INFLATION
Inflation reached a record low of 4.4%, although we previously wrote that these figures are clearly underestimated, as they violate the established economic law of the ratio of the Central Bank rate and inflation in a certain corridor. Now the rate is not adjusted at the same rate as inflation, which indicates that inflation is deliberately underestimated (Fig. 1).
Rice. 1. The ratio of the weighted average rate at the end of the year to inflation
In periods when inflation was higher than the rate, the Central Bank focused on economic growth, stimulated by the easing of monetary policy. This was the case in 2007-2008, followed by a crisis caused by changes in the cost of oil. The Central Bank then raised the rate for a year, but in 2010 it was again below inflation. In 2013, the Central Bank decides to focus not on the discount rate, but on the key rate, which was three p.p. below account. Then we again see the effect of the low coefficient.
That is, we can say that at certain historical intervals, the Bank of Russia stimulated the economy by reducing the cost of credit. Based on this, in subsequent years the Bank should have kept this ratio close to 1:1, but instead, a new pattern emerged, which had not been seen before during Putin's term. Namely, suddenly the inflation parameter went down sharply for no objective reasons, and the Bank of Russia slightly adjusted the rate. Last year, the inflation rate was almost two times lower than the rate, this year the picture is the same. And the coefficient itself increased from 0.98 (2015) to 1.96 (2016). According to the initial logic, the Central Bank should have lowered the rate to 5-7%, but did not stop at the level of 9.25%. But he did not do this. What does it say? The fact that the real level of inflation is much higher than we are told by extras and officials. Apparently it is in the range of 8-13%.
CARGO TURNOVER AND FOREIGN TRADE
The growth rates of freight turnover - 7%, railway - 7.4% over the five months of this year, as well as the growth rates of exports and imports, which reached 31.8% and 24%, respectively, became record-breaking. It was the increase in the transportation of products for foreign trade operations that led to an increase in the value of the freight turnover parameter. If we compare the data for 4 months of 2017 with the data for 4 months of 2014, that is, with an almost pre-sanction period, then the volume of exports in 2014 was 1.55 times higher than the current figures, and imports 1.48 times. Even with such high rates of growth in exports and imports this year, we have to admit that we are still far from the pre-crisis level. And no less important point - due to which there was an increase in exports and imports. Exports grew mainly due to mineral resources and metals and products from them (Fig. 2). That is, Russia has not changed its production profile in world trade. Imports increased due to purchases of machinery and equipment, which grew by 27.5%, despite the fact that they occupy 45% in the structure of imports.
Rice. 2. The ratio of exports and imports for January-April 2017 to exports and imports for January-April 2016 (according to the Federal Customs Service)
The Russian economy has fully retained its raw material profile, and behind the good figures in the field of freight turnover and foreign trade is nothing more than a consolidation of the raw materialization of the economy.
LIVING STANDARD OF RUSSIANS
It is difficult to hide the real state of the economy from the public when the shelves are filled with imported equipment, foreign-made toys and medicines are sold in stores, and only food is still labeled made in Russia. But it is even more difficult to hide the real numbers from the population when it comes to their level of well-being. According to official statistics, real incomes of citizens are 1.2% lower than the level of the previous year, wages have fallen by almost 5% since 2013. The 0.8% decrease in retail trade turnover and zero growth in services to the population suggests that citizens, having become poorer, have reduced their consumption. And against this background, the president continues to say that salaries in the country are growing, while there have already been stories on the direct line that real salaries are being denounced from those declared. And most of the questions were.
According to the VTsIOM poll, every tenth Russian does not even have enough money for food, and 29% noted that they barely have enough money for clothes. While Rosstat determines the poverty threshold according to the minimum wage, the Russians themselves consider poor those who have enough money only to buy clothes and food, and there are 39% of them in the country, among pensioners - 54%, that is, more than half! Assistance from the state to the poor will come in 2019 as part of special measures to support the poor, but according to Manturov, in the amount of about 10 thousand rubles a year. It is difficult to imagine how this money will help Russian citizens. Is it hardly enough to buy a loaf of bread every day, while, according to the government, with this money, citizens whose incomes do not reach the subsistence level will be able to buy fresh fish, meat and vegetables of Russian production. And this is for an additional 27 rubles a day to the family budget!
The fact that, according to VTsIOM, almost half of Russians intend to spend their holidays at home (47%) speaks of the unfavorable situation in terms of income, 44% of them named problems with money as the main reason for not traveling.
However, the authorities have a different point of view on the well-being of citizens. Siluanov said that “since the beginning of the year, the incomes of our citizens have begun to grow,” although even official statistics say otherwise. Over the past 30 months (since October 2014), only once did Rosstat reveal an increase in living standards - in January 2017 after a one-time payment of 5 thousand rubles to pensioners.
According to Rosstat, both real and nominal wages increased over five months, amounting to 40,640 rubles across the country. However, the majority of citizens receive significantly less: 55% have a salary below 25 thousand, and a third - even below 15 thousand rubles. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development in Russia, by 2035 the average salary in the country will grow by only 56% and in the most optimistic scenario by 2035 it will not exceed $800, although back in 2012 and 2013 the average salary was above this level ($876 and $910 respectively) !
Is it possible to talk about economic recovery if the crisis was noticed even by wealthy citizens? An Ipsos Comcon survey conducted in April 2017 showed that more than half (58%) of wealthy Russians noticed a change in the economic situation for the worse. Only 30% of respondents expect improvement, 38% expect the situation to worsen, and 32% predict that the economic situation will not change.
DEMOGRAPHY
One of the main achievements, which the President spoke about many times - demographic growth, lasted only three years (Fig. 3). The natural increase at a level 10 times less than the migration level still supported the president’s weak confidence in the correctness of his chosen course in demographic policy, but this year statistics showed that this was a short-term effect against the background of a general population decline. This year, in just four months, the natural decline in the population has already amounted to 92.8 thousand people. The Russian nation has been dying out and continues to decline. And no maternity capital programs can stop this process.
Rice. 3. Natural population growth (according to Rosstat)
Macroeconomic parameters and Rosstat data no longer reflect the real picture of the processes taking place in Russian society. When drawing up strategies and plans, the government should proceed not from mythical figures, but from the real problems of citizens, which, as the president's direct line showed, are not few.
An objective picture of what is happening in the country is given not by Rosstat and government reports, but by those citizens who did not get on the air of the direct line, letters to the presidential administration, which does not solve the problems of the people, protests, but not by unconscious youth without ideological views, but by people driven to despair - truckers, taxpayers, farmers, miners and more. It's time to listen to the voice of the majority.
MORE RELATED
The volume of agricultural production in Russia at the end of 2017 increased by 2.4% to almost 5.1 trillion rubles. According to Rosstat, such data were obtained taking into account the refinement of the dynamics of production of certain types of agricultural products by months. Thus, as follows from the materials, the assessment of the dynamics has been adjusted upward for each month of the last year by 0.2-0.3 percentage points compared to the corresponding month of the last year. In December, the growth of the agro-industrial complex amounted to 3.4% in annual terms, and the highest figure during 2017 was recorded in September, when agricultural production, according to updated data, increased by 8.7%.
One of the key factors that influenced the positive dynamics of last year was the record grain harvest, which increased by 11.2% compared to 2016 to 134.1 million tons. Including wheat production increased by 17.1% to 85 .8 million tons, barley - by 14.4% to 20.6 million tons. At the same time, the gross harvest of the main industrial crops decreased: sugar beet - by 6.1%, sunflower - by 12.6% and flax fiber - by 6.3%, which is due to a reduction in their yield by 8.5%, 2.6% and 2.1%, as well as a decrease in harvested areas of sunflower (by 10.5%) and fiber flax (by 4.3%) compared to the level of the previous year, is noted in the materials Rosstat. The gross harvest of potatoes decreased by 4.9% due to the reduction in harvested areas, the harvest of vegetables remained at the level of the previous year. The gross harvest of greenhouse vegetables amounted to 952.6 thousand tons, which is 17% higher than in 2016, the Ministry of Agriculture.
In addition to the harvest, a significant contribution to the dynamics of the agro-industrial complex was made by an increase in the production of all livestock products, commented “ Agro-investor» Head of the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank Daria Snitko. “This is especially true for poultry and pork, which showed an increase of about 5%, as well as eggs,” Snitko said. According to Rosstat, the production of livestock and poultry for slaughter in all farms over the year increased by 4.7% to 14.6 million tons in live weight, the production of eggs added 2.8% to 44.8 billion pieces, milk yield increased by 1.2% up to 31.1 million tons. The number of pigs in the country by the end of December was estimated at 23.3 million animals (5.7% more than the end of 2016), poultry - 556.6 million (0.7% more), Cattle - 18.6 million (0.6% less), sheep and goats - 24.5 million (1.3% less). According to Rosstat, in the structure of livestock, households accounted for 42.5% of the total herd of cattle in the country, 12.9% of pigs, 46.2% of sheep and goats.
Thus, last year the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex exceeded the target set in the state program for the development of agriculture. In accordance with it, in 2017, production should have increased by 1.7%. At the same time, the final value was below the level expected by the Ministry of Agriculture. So, at the end of November, speaking in the Federation Council, the head of the department, Alexander Tkachev, estimated the growth of the agro-industrial complex at 3.5%, in mid-December this forecast was reduced to "about 3%." In the updated program, transferred from this year to project management, for 2018 a level of 5.9-6.6% is indicated compared to the value of 2015, while only in 2016 the agro-industrial complex grew by 4.8%.
The decline in the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex by half compared to the level of 2016, despite the renewal of the grain harvest record, occurred for two main reasons. One of them is the relatively low prices for all agricultural products in the world, said the director of the analytical center “ SovEcon» Andrey Sizov at the Agroholdings of Russia 2017 conference in December. “We are part of the world market, and the low world price of meat, sugar or grain also affects us,” Sizov noted. These low prices are superimposed on the low exchange rate of the ruble, which has been steadily strengthening since the beginning of 2016.
In 2018, the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank still expects a decrease in output in agriculture as a whole, notes Daria Snitko. “The main reason is the likely reduction in gross harvest relative to last year's record,” she said. Tkachev, in turn, expects growth of at least 3%. As the minister stated on January 18, this figure will be achieved through the implementation of the import substitution program, the creation of new enterprises and the modernization of old ones.
Since 2016, the Russian agro-industrial sector has been demonstrating a record growth in harvesting and exporting products abroad. At the same time, the proportion of local food supply is increasing. Impressive achievements could not be prevented by objective economic difficulties and adverse weather factors. Over the past years, farms of all categories have shown a steady increase in the production index, which averaged 3.3% in 2015-2017.
Records of the domestic agro-industrial complex
During 2016 and 2017, Russia recorded an update of records for the gross grain harvest - 120.7 and 135.4 million tons, respectively (an increase of + 12.2%). Not surprisingly, 2017 was marked by an update of the best indicators of grain sales abroad. In July, according to the results of the completed agricultural year 2016/17, an increase in grain exports by 4.7% was recorded compared to the same period last year. In total, 35.47 million tons were exported during the specified period, while a year earlier it was 33.9 million tons. As a result, the Russian Federation turned out to be the leader of the global market in this indicator. In addition, the country confidently took second place in the supply of sunflower oil, significantly expanding its sales markets.
The outpacing growth of agricultural production relative to other sectors, with a significant increase in its volume, makes it possible to obtain large funds. In 2016, the value of products sold amounted to 5.6 trillion rubles, although 10 years ago this figure was 3.7 trillion rubles. less. For the period from 2007 to 2016, the growth of domestic agriculture turned out to be 4 times higher than the dynamics of changes in GDP and 7 times higher than the growth rate of industry.
In the volume of exports of Russian agricultural products, meat products demonstrate the highest growth dynamics - in 2016, sales abroad of beef increased by 771%, pork by 352%, and mutton by 204%. A group of goods with high added value showed positive dynamics. During this period, the export of sugar increased by 600%, fish oil and meat extracts by 500%, potato flour by 150%.
Success Secrets
An important prerequisite for the success of the agro-industrial complex was a significant drop in the oil market, the introduction of a food embargo by the United States and the European Union, as well as the announcement of counter-sanctions. The latter factor has activated the process of import substitution and increased the competitiveness of the industry. Against this background, the devaluation of the national currency contributed to an increase in import prices, which also had a positive impact on domestic producers.
In addition, the unprecedented growth of the domestic agro-industry was influenced by the global market conditions - the increase in world prices for agricultural products and the increase in demand for food and biofuel from Asian consumers. State support measures and improvement of production quality indicators played their role. For example, in crop production, up to 90% of growth is directly related to an increase in yield, and only 10% was determined by an increase in sown areas.
The allocation of additional funds for the development of the industry ensured an accelerated increase in prices for agricultural products. The balanced financial result of the industry by 2016 reached 272 billion rubles. instead of 67 billion in 2010. This resulted in a significant increase in profitability from 7.3% in 2013 to 17.3% three years later. Previously, the growth of the agro-industrial complex was held back by the large share of household plots of citizens, which produced more than half of the products nationwide. During 2013-2016, their share gradually decreased and reached less than 40% by the end of this period. Therefore, there has been a tendency to increase the influence on the growth rate of the Russian agro-industry on the part of farms and various types of agricultural organizations. At the same time, their owners preferred less costly and capital-intensive products.
One of the reasons for the success of animal husbandry is the growth of the domestic market, on which this branch of agriculture directly depends. At the same time, export acts as a deterrent, since due to the high price of Russian products, it is difficult to compete with foreign analogues. It looks promising to establish supplies of meat to China, where its quality is appreciated, but so far the authorities have not been able to achieve the removal of existing restrictions. Therefore, for the time being, the real driver of livestock growth is the expansion of the processing of meat products, which will increase production volumes.
According to Rosstat, during the period 2016-2017, the country's sown area increased by an average of 0.8%. However, for some cultures, it amounted to significantly larger numbers:
- buckwheat +40.5%;
- legumes +26.8%;
- soy +18.3%;
- fodder corn +9.9%;
- wheat +6.4%.
All this also contributed to the growth of productivity and, as a result, the increase in the profitability of farms. As a result, enterprises began to increase the number of employees, increase wages and increase deductions to the budgets of all levels.
State policy in the field of agriculture
In Russia, there is a state program for the development of agriculture and the regulation of agricultural products, raw materials and food markets, designed for the period up to 2020. It defines the main goals and key areas for the development of the industry, including:
- increasing the competitiveness of products of the domestic agricultural sector in the domestic and foreign markets;
- maintaining the country's food independence in accordance with the indicators outlined in the Food Security Doctrine;
- increasing the rate of import substitution for milk, meat, vegetables, fruits and berries, as well as seed potatoes.
In 2016, the total amount of government assistance to the agricultural sector amounted to 237 billion rubles, which can be considered unprecedented figures. Over 30 types of state support are offered for agricultural producers, among which the most important are:
- compensation of part of the cost of long-term loans;
- grants up to 1.5 million rubles to support newly created farms, as well as a one-time payment for social arrangements in the amount of up to 300 thousand rubles;
- per hectare calculation of subsidies;
- subsidizing part of the down payment for farmers on the leasing of agricultural equipment.
Investment in agriculture
Another direction of the state's activity is the creation of conditions for investing in the agricultural sector, which is traditionally considered very risky. In 2015, the volume of capital investments in agriculture was fixed at the level of 530 billion rubles, which is 60 billion less than expected. To increase the investment attractiveness of the agro-industrial complex, new approaches are being applied, for example, compensation for the share of the investor's direct costs for capital construction allows returning about 20% of the funds. To solve this problem in 2017, 16 billion rubles were allocated.
Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences G. Ushachev, a leading domestic specialist in the field of economics of the agricultural sector, in one of his speeches outlined several conditions for attracting additional funds to finance agricultural producers:
- state support for the agro-industrial complex;
- increasing the share of commodity producers in the final cost of food;
- stabilization of prices for material resources for the agro-industrial complex;
- stable prices for agricultural products.
Over the past few years, there has been a change in the main investment flows. Previously, capital was directed, first of all, to pig breeding, poultry farming and the development of greenhouses. Now it is believed that they are already sufficiently saturated and in the future it is possible to more actively include the production of milk, fruit and berry products, vegetable oil and sunflower seeds in the investment scheme.
Agricultural modernization
One of the key growth points for the agricultural sector can be its technical re-equipment, including the massive introduction of electronics as a means of developing smart agriculture. Optical equipment is being developed that can determine the number of crop pests per given unit area from the height of a drone flight. Serious prospects are seen in the chipping of cattle in order to control its movement.
Thanks to the introduction of infrared devices, it will be possible to detect plant diseases at an early stage. Scientists are working on the creation of mobile applications that allow remote control of equipment on the farm and facilitate the organization of production processes. The state subsidizes promising areas related to breeding and genetic engineering, as well as the breeding of highly productive species of animals and plants that are resistant to adverse factors.
Prospects for the development of the industry
Throughout 2016 and 2017, agriculture acted as a growth driver for the national economy, allowing it to relatively safely survive the new sanctions and the collapse of the oil market. According to the results of each of these periods, there was an increase of 4.8% and 2.8%, respectively. However, in 2018, the situation begins to change in an unfavorable direction. Thus, according to the results of August, agricultural production decreased by almost 11% compared to the same period last year.
According to the forecast of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), by the end of 2018, the total grain harvest will be 110 million tons, although a year earlier it was harvested 135.4 million tons. This is partly due to unfavorable weather conditions - late sowing due to the protracted spring and summer drought. At the same time, the failure in crop production could not compensate for livestock production, in which there is a rather insignificant increase:
- milk +0.8%;
- livestock +3.7%;
- chicken egg +0.7%.
One of the reasons for the slowdown in the development of animal husbandry is related to the overstocking of the market against the backdrop of a reduction in export supplies. To some extent, this was affected by a decrease in state support for the industry in 2018 by 12 billion rubles, compared to the same period last year. The most important component of progress in the industry can be called the creation of conditions for increasing grain yields, since in comparison with competitors these indicators in Russia are quite modest.
Table: Average grain yields in selected countries
To solve this problem, it will be necessary to expand the use of modern technology, increase the amount of mineral and organic fertilizers applied, as well as improve the skills of agronomists and improve seed material. An important goal in terms of increasing labor productivity seems to be an increase in wages in the industry, which is only 60% of the average level in the Russian economy.
In order for agriculture to continue to remain a growth point for the entire national economy, it is necessary to promote the development of the export component for agricultural products. In his May decree, V. Putin outlined a priority goal - to increase the volume of exports of agricultural products by 2024 to the level of $45 billion. To implement this task, the state intends to provide 500 billion rubles. The Ministry of Agriculture is sure that in order to fulfill the presidential decree, it is necessary to organize large-scale production of products with high added value. Among them are drinks, products of deep processing of grain, sausages and confectionery.
Another driver for the growth of the domestic agro-industrial complex may be an increase in real incomes of the population and an increase in consumer demand, including for expensive product segments. However, these factors are directly related to the economic situation.
Russian GDP last year amounted to 92 trillion rubles. - an increase of 1.5%, Rosstat reported. The Ministry of Economic Development noted the outpacing growth in consumption and investment. But data on GDP growth turned out to be worse than the government's forecast
Photo: Evgeny Biyatov / RIA Novosti
The gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia grew by 1.5% last year, according to the data published by Rosstat: according to its preliminary estimate, the economy produced 92.1 trillion rubles. for the whole year at current prices. This is even a little more than the day before, President Vladimir Putin (+1.4%).
In the context of economic sectors, Rosstat recorded the largest output growth in the field of culture, sports, leisure and entertainment - 5%. This may be due to investments in preparations for the 2018 FIFA World Cup. The transportation and storage sector grew by 3.7%, the information and telecommunications industry grew by 3.6%, and the wholesale and retail trade (plus vehicle repairs) grew by 3.1%.
The fall was recorded in the areas of construction (-0.2%), healthcare and social services (-0.2%), education (-0.1%).
Investment and stocks rose the most
Another way to look at GDP is final spending in the economy. According to Rosstat, household final consumption increased by 3.4% in 2017. Gross capital formation jumped by 7.6% (after declining by 1.9% in 2016), including investment in fixed assets grew by 3.6%. Such dynamics may be associated with an increase in business inventories (changes in inventories are included in gross capital formation. — RBC), says Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank. The contribution of inventories was significant in the second quarter of last year, she said. “The structure of GDP use shows that the increase in reserves has almost doubled (2.18 trillion to 1.27 trillion rubles),” said Kirill Kononov, senior analyst at the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank.
General government spending declined by 0.9%, reflecting a reduction in fiscal spending in real terms.
At the same time, the share of consumer spending in the economy decreased to 52.2% compared to 52.8% a year earlier. The share of investment in GDP increased from 21.6% to 21.8%, and replenishment of business inventories - from 1.5% to 2.3%.
“After a recession in 2015 and 2016, the economy has returned to growth. Consumer demand added 3.4%, and investment - 3.6%. The current assessment does not yet take into account data on the dynamics of small and medium-sized businesses and other annual reports, which are due later and will be taken into account when publishing subsequent assessments,” Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin commented on the statistics on his Facebook page. The data published by Rosstat turned out to be lower than the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, which in the base scenario spoke of GDP growth by 2.1%.
